Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
